Abstract

LOVINO, M.A.; MULLER, G.V.  and  SGROI, L.C.. ¿Cómo ha cambiado la precipitación en la provincia de Santa Fe?. RIA. Rev. investig. agropecu. [online]. 2020, vol.46, n.2, pp.226-239. ISSN 1669-2314.

The province of Santa Fe concentrates a large percentage of Argentina’s agroindustrial production. In recent years, extreme events related to precipitation excesses and deficits have caused extended waterlogging and large droughts, severely affecting the agroindustry in the province. These extreme events may be influenced by changes in precipitation that occurred since mid-twentieth century. This study investigates the variability and changes in precipitation and its extremes in different regions of the province of Santa Fe. To fulfill this aim, we used observed data with long records and controlled quality. A Singular Spectral Analysis was applied to examine the temporal variability of annual precipitation and extreme events. The extreme events were characterized by the maximum annual daily precipitation, the maximum amount of precipitation accumulated in 5 consecutive days per year, the simple daily intensity index and the consecutive dry days. The results show an increase in annual precipitation since the 1960s and a considerable rise in the frequency and magnitude of heavy rainfall throughout the province. In addition, the El Niño Southern Oscillation influence precipitation with frequencies between 2 and 6 years. In the studied stations of the northern and central regions, the annual rainfall registered an average increase of 15% since 1960 compared with the first half of the twentieth century, although upward trends seem to have stabilized after 1990. In contrast, consecutive dry days have raised significantly in recent decades. In the stations of the central-southern and southern regions, there was an increase in annual precipitation and heavy rainfall with upward trends to date. If these trends continue rising, they will generate an even greater increase in heavy rains of great magnitude in the coming years. These findings suggest that precipitation will be concentrated in fewer days with rain of greater intensity and quantity of water for each event, leading to water excesses in the whole province. Furthermore, seasonal deficits will occur more frequently, mainly in the north of the province.

Keywords : climate variability; climate change; heavy rainfalls; droughts..

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