Abstract

DILLON, María Eugenia; GARCIA SKABAR, Yanina  and  NICOLINI, Matilde. Desempeño del pronóstico de modelos de alta resolución, en un área limitada: análisis de la estación de verano 2010-2011. Meteorologica [online]. 2013, vol.38, n.2, pp.69-89. ISSN 1850-468X.

Nowadays, numerical models constitute an essential tool for the meteorological community, both for operative and research applications. In our region, the BRAMS and the WRF models have been used with difierent purposes. Particularly, since November 2010, a version of the BRAMS model is processed daily in the National Weather Service with an 18 hours high resolution forecast over Buenos Aires Province. Given the increased use in the scientific community of the WRF model, the objective of this paper is to compare WRF forecasts with the ones that are daily produced by the BRAMS at the SMN, using nests with the resolution higher than any other used in our country in real time. Their performance is evaluated during the South Hemisphere summer season 2010 - 2011. Analyzing the precipitation from the whole period, it was concluded that using higher resolution models, maxima of precipitation could be represented in intense precipitation cases, while they were not detected by smaller resolution models. The vertical thermodynamic profile was also verified in the Ezeiza aerologic station, and it was found that the high resolution models are skillful for representing the atmospheric vertical structure, although they show some limitations in the boundary layer.

Keywords : Numerical forecast; Verification; High resolution.

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