Abstract

RAMENZONI, Victoria C.; SAUX, Gastón; IRRAZABAL, Natalia  and  MINERVINO, Ricardo Adrián. Content effects in probability judgments. Anu. investig. [online]. 2007, vol.14, pp.00-00. ISSN 1851-1686.

Conjunction errors were studied in two types of prediction tasks that implied different notions of probability: fictional and realistic (Teigen, Martinussen & Lund, 1996). In the present study, 83 students of Psychology of the University of Buenos Aires were asked to evaluate the probability of Argentina winning the first three matches of the World Soccer Cup 2006 (realistic) and Linda's problem (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). The differences found in the amount of errors between the two tasks were highly significant. Conjunction errors were reduced by judgments that involve realistic contents. Such findings indicate the relevance of considering socio ecological factors in probabilistic reasoning (Hertwig & Gigerenzer, 1999) as well as in didactic strategies.

Keywords : Conjunction fallacy; Heuristics; Content.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )