Background:

Background: There has been a growing interest in determining those risk factors associated with adverse outcomes in early stages of lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB).

Objective:

The aim of our study was to analyze the risk factors associated with severe bleeding, emergency surgery and in-hospital mortality.

Material and methods:

We conducted an observational and retrospective study on 1850 patients consecutive managed between January 1999 and December 2018 for LGIB. We analyzed thirteen variables within the first four hours of hospitalization to evaluate risk severity. Diverticular disease was considered to determine factors associated with emergency surgery, and the preoperative American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score was used to assess mortality and emergency surgery.

Results:

Out of 1850 cases, 194 were severe and 1656 were mild/moderate, Patients > 70 years, with HR > 120 beats/min, BP < 90 mm Hg, oliguria, massive hematochezia, hematocrit < 30%, hemoglobin < 7 g% and need for transfusions presented statistically significant associations with severe bleeding. Age > 70 years, anticoagulation, hypotension, tachycardia, hemoglobin < 7 g%, oliguria, need for transfusion and massive hematochezia were significant predictors of emergency surgery. A prognostic formula was constructed to predict the need for surgery (sensitivity 94%, specificity 74%, positive predictive value 91% and negative predictive value 81%). AUC-ROC: 0,89%. Age > 70 years, anticoagulation, massive hematochezia transfusions and emergency surgery were identified as predictors of mortality. Fifteen of the sixteen patients who underwent surgery and died had ASA ≥ grade 4.

Conclusions:

The variables analyzed are simple, reliable and statistically significant to estimate the risk of severe bleeding, need for emergency surgery and mortality.

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