Abstract

GODOY, S. M.; SANTA CRUZ, A. S. M.  and  SCENNA, N. J.. Risk analysis and safe distances calculation considering atmospheric parameters uncertainlty. Lat. Am. appl. res. [online]. 2006, vol.36, n.4, pp.263-268. ISSN 0327-0793.

This work presents a computational tool, useful in risk assessment of hazardous material releases. It is based on a methodology that takes into account the stochastic uncertainty of atmospheric parameters. This is relevant for calculating risk of hazardous gases, particulate matter or bioaerosols diffusion when an accidental release or continuous emission occurs. This methodology can be applied to risk analysis of static sources (a stack or a fixed tank in a facility) or transportation accidents (road, train, maritime and pipeline transport) involving different scenarios. After carrying out a stochastic simulation based on well-known diffusion models (heavy and light gases or particulate matter), downwind concentrations are obtained so that individual and societal risks can be computed. This work contributes mainly to the formal presentation of the procedure, and the real application of the stochastic simulation avoiding large (prohibitive) computational effort, by introducing a translation algorithm and the Stochastic Reference Emitter (SRE) definition. This new approach also shows to be a fundamental step to organize a software prototype for risk assessment. Besides, taking advantage of the new computational capability a SRE-based algorithm for safe distances calculation is introduced. Finally, an example shows the main capabilities of the new tool.

Keywords : Atmospheric Parameter Uncertainty; Consequence and Vulnerability Analysis; Risk Assessment.

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