Abstract

SERIO, L.; MARTIN, P.  and  MURPHY, G.. Evaluation of a statistical forecasting method for the soil water condition in the Argentinean pampas region. Agriscientia [online]. 2010, vol.27, n.1, pp.11-17. ISSN 1668-298X.

One of the available tools for monitoring soil dryness and excessive wetness is the Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI). Three years ago, a methodology for monitoring and monthly statistical prediction of the SPI in the Pampas region of Argentina was put into operation. The aim of this paper is to evaluate these forecasts. First, the SPI calculation methodology is described, and so are those aspects taken into account in order to issue the forecasts. Then, some results of the evaluation by means of contingence tables are shown. Considering the whole region, the percentage of success for the predicted SPI category was 78 % and the contingence coefficient was 0.65.

Keywords : Drought; Wetness excess; Pampas region; Probability; Forecast.

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