versão ISSN 1668-298X
During the winter rest, fruit trees of temperate zones should be exposed to low temperatures in order to satisfy their chilling requirements. Chill availability varies through regions and years, and this may be insufficient for cherry trees. Therefore, when farmers want to incorporate new areas, they should be acquainted with winter chilling availability beforehand. The objectives of this study were: to develop a prognosis to estimate the amount of winter chilling and to calculate the probability of satisfying the amount of chilling requirement of any given year. Models showed that the proportion explained by modified Utah chill units at reference date (MUCURD) varied between 50 to 87% for Junín and 50 to 86% for San Martín. For Junín, the probability to reach an average value of 884 chill units Utah modified (MUCU) is 28%, whereas the average value for San Martín is 816 MUCU and its probability correspond to 16%. The winter chill prognosis will allow the producer evaluates the risks which has its plantation suffer damage due to lack of winter chill and eventually implement corrective measures.
Palavras-chave : Chilling requirements; Sweet cherry; Chill unit; Prognosis.