Abstract

RAVELO, A.C; SANZ RAMOS, R  and  DOURIET CARDENAS, J.C. Detección, evaluación y pronóstico de las sequías en la región del Organismo de Cuenca Pacífco Norte, México. Agriscientia [online]. 2014, vol.31, n.1, pp.11-24. ISSN 1668-298X.

The watersheds in the region of the North Pacific Watershed Organism in Mexico are affected by recurring droughts which impact negatively the agriculture and every socio-economic activity. The drought study considered the period 1978-2012 and used data of rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, MODIS satellite and soil water holding capacity for 54 weather stations of the region. Several drought indices were computed: Standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index, and the normalized difference vegetation index. These indices allowed the detection, assessment and forecasting of intensity of the hydrological deficits during drought or not drought periods. A neural network was used for the drought forecasting and statistically validated. The mapping of indices was done automatically with a computer program (SOS). Two periods with opposite extreme hydrological conditions were considered: 2004-2005 when the indices indicated water excesses and 2011-2012 when severe droughts affected the water reservoirs, river fows and water availability in urban and rural areas. These conditions were verifed with government and newspaper reports.

Keywords : Índices; Drought; Neural network; México.