Abstract

SIGNORINI, M.L. Mathematical model to predict the growth of Escherichia coli O157 in beef. InVet [online]. 2008, vol.10, n.1, pp.47-57. ISSN 1668-3498.

The aim of this study was modeled Escherichia coli O157 growth in beef hamburger as part of a quantitative risk assessment. Scientific articles that presented a complete pathogen growth model in meat depending on the temperature and two tertiary predictive models were selected. Since they were generated data of lag phase (ë) and growth rate (μ) in a range of temperatures (5 ° C to 34 ° C) and pH (5.6 - 6.5), and were obtained the linear relationship between each parameter and temperature. Linear equations in probability distributions for each parameter were included and ran a model for analyzing the behavior of lag-exponential and Gompertz equations in predicting E. coli O157 growth. The methodology exposed allows including different environmental conditions present in the meat throughout the process, taking into account the variability and uncertainty in the microbial growth parameters. Gompertz microbiological model generated better results, because consider the bacteria concentration on the stationary growth phase, preventing obtain extremely high values.

Keywords : Quantitative risk assessment; Escherichia coli O157; Growth models.

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