SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.37 número1Evaluación del desempeño de modelos de dispersión de contaminantes aplicados a cañones urbanosClimatología de la precipitación de tres días en la Cuenca del Plata índice de autoresíndice de materiabúsqueda de artículos
Home Pagelista alfabética de revistas  

Servicios Personalizados

Articulo

Indicadores

  • No hay articulos citadosCitado por SciELO

Links relacionados

  • En proceso de indezaciónCitado por Google
  • No hay articulos similaresSimilares en SciELO
  • En proceso de indezaciónSimilares en Google

Bookmark


Meteorologica

versión On-line ISSN 1850-468X

Resumen

ANDRADE, Kelen Martins et al. Changes in frequency of frontal systems over southern of South America in projections of future climate. Meteorologica [online]. 2012, vol.37, n.1, pp. 15-26. ISSN 1850-468X.

The frequency of frontal systems reaching the south of South America is compared with reanalysis NCEP/NCAR and results of GFDL and Hadley models for the future climate. Three regions were analyzed to identify the frontal systems, in areas of Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. The following criteria were used: increase of sea surface pressure, reduction of the temperature and change of the meridional wind at 850hPa, in two consecutive days. Selected cases with temperature drop above five degrees, considered the most intense, were also analyzed. For the present climate it was observed that the models simulated well the synoptic characteristics of frontal systems. However, when comparing the frequency of frontal occurrence between reanalysis data and models simulations, the GFDL and Hadley models overestimated their numbers. The Hadley model overestimates further more than the NCEP and GFDL in present climate. The positive trend observed in area 3 (65ºW-60ºW, 33ºS-38ºS) from NCEP reanalysis is not simulated by the models. When the most intense systems are selected, the GFDL model shows higher overestimation in number of frontal systems. Both models indicate an increase of frontal systems frequency in future in the three areas, although less in area 3.

Palabras llave : Frontal systems; Climate change; South America.

        · resumen en Portugués     · texto en Portugués     · pdf en Portugués