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Meteorologica

versão On-line ISSN 1850-468X

Resumo

NAUMANN, Gustavo; LLANO, María P.  e  VARGAS, Walter M.. Climatology of three days precipitation in La Plata Basin. Meteorologica [online]. 2012, vol.37, n.1, pp. 27-36. ISSN 1850-468X.

A climatology of various properties of precipitation in intervals of three days is developed. This climatology has a particular importance for the extended forecast of precipitation. Therefore the main objective of this climatology is the development and the initiation of extended forecasts of 6 to 10 days in terms of probabilities divided into categories. For this, the frequencies of days with precipitation in three days windows are analyzed. Each frequency of zero days of precipitation for day i is the result of a lack of rainfall in three days moving windows centered on i, in the same way the frequencies are obtained up to three days with precipitation, respectively. We used data from 94 stations in a common period (1959-1998) in the study area. Annual waves of the properties obtained for precipitation and their synthesis are studied through harmonic decomposition. A vector representation of the defining properties of harmonic analysis is propose, such as date of occurrence of the maximum (phase) and amplitude. Finally, special emphasis is placed on the study of extreme precipitation events, such as the annual march of the maximum represented by the 90th percentile of daily precipitation.

Palavras-chave : Climatology; Daily precipitation; Probability.

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