Resumo

BIDEGAIN, Mario; CORONEL, G; RIOS, N  e  DE LOS SANTOS, B. Future Climate Scenarios Over Paraguay. Meteorologica [online]. 2012, vol.37, n.2, pp.47-55. ISSN 1850-468X.

Were estimated future climate scenarios of temperature, precipitation, especific humidity and solar radiation for the region centered on Paraguay. Four global climate model outputs (HadCM3, ECHAM5, GFDL 2.0 and CSIRO-Mk3 ) were used, for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with socioeconomic scenarios SRES A2 and B2. There is a significant differences in the precipitation estimatives, the greatest reductions (-6%) would be located over Paraguay river basin and the largest increases (+5%) in the eastern region. The future temperature change scenarios show a warming of 1° C by 2020, 2.5 ° C by 2050 and +4.5 °C by 2080. The greatest warming could be verified over the Paraguay River basin and minors over the southeastern. The specific humidity could be increased over the entire region +0.2 gr/kg by 2050 and +0.3 gr/kg by 2080. The major increase could be occurring on Rio Paraná basin. An increase in solar radiation could be occurring over the Bolivian Altiplano and a decrease in the southwestern region. With the PRECIS system V1.6 we developed future climate scenarios in high resolution for the period 2081-2090, increase in annual average temperature +2° C would be expected over Paraguay.

Palavras-chave : Climate Scenarios; Paraguay; Downscaling.

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