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Ciclos en la historia, la economía y la sociedad

On-line version ISSN 1851-3735


MARCUZZO, Maria Cristina. Keynes y los mercados de materias primas: de la especulación a la regulación. Ciclos hist. econ. soc. [online]. 2013, vol.21, n.42, pp.00-00. ISSN 1851-3735.

In her paper Marcuzzo analyses Keynes's 'extremely wide practical acquaintance' with organized market as a way to understand his practice as speculator and his evolving views on speculation which eventually led him to argue against 'unfettered competition' and in favour of regulation of commodity markets. He relied heavily on information relative to each individual market and commodity, weighing up the quality and reliability of that information through calculation of the relevant data, the advice of experts, and his own assessment of market conditions and of other participants' opinions. The grasp of 'business psychology' became an increasing important element both in his investment strategy and in his views on speculation His own investment philosophy seems to have changed in the early 1930s, following heavy losses in the commodity market, the 1929 crash and possibly progress in his new theoretical developments which culminated in the General Theory. The role of informed opinion about the relevant data gave way to evaluation of market sentiment, conventions and herd behaviour. In the end the ability of the speculator rested, for Keynes, on individual judgment, as opposed to the average market view. In the case of the commodity markets, which played an important role in sustaining or depressing the level of effective demand worldwide, Keynes became increasingly worried about the effect of adverse or excessively optimistic market opinions and ever more apprehensive of the dire consequences of trusting them to ensure the smooth working of the economic system.

Keywords : Commodities; Keynes; Markets; speculation.

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